Adult social care in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has a large, established adult social care market, but its scale can obscure significant differences in the support people need. The area combines a large urban population, a substantial retirement and self-funder market, coastal deprivation and an extensive care workforce.

Its population is approximately 404,050 and is projected to reach around 420,900 by 2028. Around 22% of residents are aged 65 and over, compared with 18.7% nationally, and approximately 3.5% are aged 85 and over.

Population ageing will increase the need for dementia and nursing care, support at home, rehabilitation, specialist housing and support for unpaid carers. It does not, however, follow that every type of existing provision needs to expand at the same rate. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole Council wants to reduce unnecessary reliance on residential care while improving reablement, short-term support, Extra Care and supported accommodation.

Its June 2026 CQC local-authority assessment and more recent housing evidence provide a useful basis for judging where the market is changing.

The clearest signals concern suitable Extra Care and supported housing, accommodation for adults with learning disabilities and autistic people, difficult-to-source or complex homecare, higher-acuity and dementia care, intermediate care and respite. These are not interchangeable opportunities. For a prospective provider, the question is less whether B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has demand than which service model, client group and locality would address a demonstrable need.

These measures relate to different reporting periods and should not be interpreted as one live operational snapshot.

Population ageing, residential care and more complex needs

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's population is significantly larger than many unitary authorities. The area combines B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole into one commissioning geography. Around 22% of residents are already aged 65 and over. The 2026 Supported & Specialist Housing Strategy expects the older population to grow by around 19% over the following decade. That increases demand for frailty support, dementia services, falls prevention, homecare, nursing, and specialist housing.

But ageing does not automatically mean proportional growth in care-home placements. The council is actively trying to develop alternatives. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's strategic direction has been consistent for several years. The council wants to reduce unnecessary reliance on care homes. Its care-home commissioning strategy and wider market plans emphasise supporting people at home, intermediate care, Extra Care, technology, and earlier intervention. This matters because B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole already has a large residential sector.

Skills for Care recorded 137 regulated residential services in 2024/25. A provider considering another general care home therefore needs a specific local case. Reducing reliance on residential care does not mean the market disappears. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has a large older population and substantial self-funder demand.

The council and NHS will continue to need residential care, nursing care, dementia care, and complex placements. The distinction is between generic volume and specialist suitability.

The strongest future care-home models are likely to be those able to support people who cannot safely remain in less intensive settings. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's published market material repeatedly refers to increasing complexity. This includes dementia, challenging behaviour, palliative and end-of-life care, multiple long-term conditions, complex physical disability, and neurodivergence.

The council's homecare transformation work also identifies small, complex and geographically difficult packages as recurring sourcing problems. This creates opportunity for providers with genuine specialist capability. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has a large retirement population and substantial private care-home demand. That can support private-pay providers. But it also creates a financial risk for the council.

The 2026/27 financial strategy specifically identifies the high proportion of self-funding care-home residents whose capital can later fall below the threshold, requiring local-authority funding. For providers, this means payer mix can change over time. A resident may enter privately and later become publicly funded.

Extra Care and accessible housing

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's current Supported & Specialist Housing Strategy provides much stronger evidence than the older strategic documents. It records around 356 Extra Care units. The council estimates that by 2035 it will need around 1,052 Extra Care units for residents aged 65 and over receiving council-funded care and support.

That implies an additional requirement of approximately 796 units. This is a substantial development signal. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole does not view Extra Care as simply another housing option.

1. Units recorded in the 2026 housing evidence

   356

2. Units estimated to be needed by 2035

   1,052

3. Additional units implied

   796

It is part of the adult social care model. The objective is to allow people to retain their own tenancy, live in self-contained accommodation, access care on site, remain independent for longer, and avoid or delay residential care. That makes Extra Care one of the most strategically aligned development areas.

The 2026 housing evidence also shows an important complication. Across the available data period, average Extra Care voids were around 7.2%. In one scheme, void levels were much higher.

• 7.2%Average Extra Care voids

Some voids were repairs or units not ready to let. Others reflected allocation and demand.

Some voids related to units needing repair or not being ready to let. Others reflected allocation and demand issues. This means the market should not be interpreted as simply "796 units short". B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole needs the right schemes, in the right places, with the right tenure and care model. The supported-housing strategy estimates a need for between 5,200 and 6,900 additional accessible and adaptable homes for older people by 2035.

In January 2025, around 180 people aged over 65 with mobility needs were waiting on the housing register. That was close to three times the number of adapted homes typically let in a year. This illustrates how housing supply directly affects adult social care demand.

180

People over 65 with mobility needs waiting, January 2025

Nearly 3×

The usual number of adapted homes let in a year

5,200–6,900

Additional accessible and adaptable homes estimated by 2035

Supported housing, choice and independence

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's 2026 Supported & Specialist Housing Strategy records 133 properties available through the Learning Disability and Autism Housing Allocations Panel; 559 units across those properties; and 112 people with learning disability or autism waiting for supported living or housing-related support accommodation in February 2025. That is one of the clearest current market signals. The issue is not simply support hours. It is the combination of suitable housing and support.

133

Properties on the learning disability and autism panel

559

Supported-housing units across those properties

112

People waiting for suitable accommodation, February 2025

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has historically developed a large volume of shared accommodation. Many residents have bedrooms but share bathrooms, kitchens, and communal areas. The council says matching people into these schemes can be difficult. People increasingly prefer self-contained flats, ensuite facilities, and greater privacy.

This creates a qualitative gap even where nominal supported-housing units exist. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has been exploring whether some small residential services can move toward supported-living models.

The objective is to give people their own tenancy, greater independence, more control, and stronger community integration. A provider entering this market needs to align with that direction. A conventional residential model may be less attractive than self-contained supported living. The Supported & Specialist Housing Strategy explicitly covers adults with severe and enduring mental illness.

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole is developing a new framework spanning learning disabilities, mental health, and neurodivergence.

The council wants a greater range of providers, including specialists. That creates a procurement and development opportunity. But the provider needs both suitable housing and the right support capability.

Homecare capacity and changing commissioning priorities

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has a substantial homecare sector. Skills for Care recorded 120 non-residential regulated services across the authority in 2024/25, although this includes services beyond standard domiciliary care. The council continues to commission homecare through a provider framework. Its 2026 transformation programme is redesigning how support at home works. This suggests the market is mature rather than empty.

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's 2024 homecare review found that capacity had improved significantly compared with the post-pandemic period. Waiting times and complaints had reduced. The system had also increased use of reablement, assistive technology, and voluntary-sector support. This is important negative evidence against a simplistic homecare shortage narrative.

The same review identifies persistent problems with small packages, highly complex packages, challenging geographic areas, and workforce recruitment and skills.

Those are more credible entry points for a new provider. The strongest homecare proposition may therefore be specialist, responsive, complex, and targeted at hard-to-serve localities. The Adult Social Care Improvement Programme includes a dedicated Support At Home project. By July 2026, the programme was in delivery. The council is reviewing homecare contracts, assessment practice, short-term support, self-directed support, assistive technology, and community alternatives.

A provider entering now should assume the market will continue to evolve.

Reablement, hospital discharge and prevention

CQC's June 2026 assessment found that reablement and intermediate-care outcomes were below national comparators. Only 1.62% of older people received reablement after hospital discharge, compared with 3% nationally. Among those receiving reablement after hospital discharge, 63.16% remained at home after 91 days, compared with 83.7% nationally. These are important market signals. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole plans to commission a new community-based reablement service.

1. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole1.62%
2. England3%

14

CQC local-authority assessment, June 2026.

1. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole63.16%
2. England83.7%

5595

The council's aim is not simply to create more short-term packages. It wants more people to regain independence. A provider in this space should therefore expect outcomes to include reduced care hours, no ongoing package, increased use of technology, and better mobility. A business model based on converting every reablement customer into long-term homecare would be poorly aligned.

CQC found delays in hospital discharge and weaknesses in communication during transitions from hospital to home.

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has strong integration in some areas, including co-located NHS and social care staff. But the pathway still does not work consistently. This creates potential opportunity around discharge support, short-term care, reablement, and rapid-response homecare. CQC recognised B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's wellbeing hubs, falls prevention, and occupational-therapy-led first-contact conversations.

These services can reduce escalation into formal care. For providers, that means future demand will increasingly be shaped by prevention.

The council may prefer services that keep people independent rather than services that maximise long-term dependency.

Carers, direct payments and access to support

CQC found that carers continued to face challenges. These included low respite access, low direct-payment uptake, and waits for carers assessments. The council's next steps include expanding respite and improving prioritisation for high-risk carers. This creates a potentially stronger niche than generic care. CQC identified low direct-payment uptake as an area for improvement. Direct payments can create an alternative route into the market for providers.

But a low current uptake means the route is not yet as developed as it could be. Providers should not assume a large immediate self-directed support market. CQC says assessment and review waits had improved significantly. However, improvement was recent and had not yet demonstrated sustained better outcomes. Long waits can affect providers because need may exist before funding is formally agreed. Demand does not always convert quickly into commissioned work.

Spending, workforce and local variation

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole spent around £176.9 million on adult social care in 2024/25. That represented more than a quarter of total council expenditure. Approximately 5,590 people received long-term support. This confirms a large statutory market. But public spending does not mean every new provider can access it.

Procurement, framework status and commissioning strategy remain critical. Skills for Care estimates around 14,000 adult social care posts in B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole. Around 13,000 were filled. Approximately 800 were vacant.

The market added around 475 filled posts over the previous year. That is a positive capacity trend. The estimated vacancy rate was 6.1%. That was broadly in line with the South West and England. This is much better than the acute post-pandemic workforce position described in B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's older sustainability planning. But workforce risk has not disappeared. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole's estimated turnover rate was 26.9%. That is above the England average.

£176.9m

Adult social care expenditure, 2024/25

14,000

Adult social care posts, around

6.1%

Estimated vacancy rate

26.9%

Estimated turnover, above the England average

475

Filled posts added over the previous year

High turnover increases recruitment costs, training demand, management pressure, and continuity risk. This matters particularly in complex and specialist services. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole are not identical care markets. They have different age profiles, housing, deprivation, property values, and provider density. Boscombe and central Bournemouth can present very different demand from Christchurch or parts of Poole.

A provider should not use the B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole total population as a proxy for a local catchment.

Where the strongest market signals sit

B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole has a large and mature adult social care market. The strongest growth signals are highly selective.

General care homes

A substantial existing market. The strategic direction is to reduce avoidable residential placements rather than maximise generic bed numbers.

Dementia and complex care

A stronger case because population ageing and acuity are increasing.

General homecare

A mature provider market with improved capacity. A generic new agency needs a clear differentiator.

Complex or difficult-to-source homecare

A stronger opportunity, especially where current frameworks struggle with complexity, small packages or local geography.

Extra Care

One of the strongest structural opportunities. B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole estimates around 796 additional council-funded units will be needed by 2035.

Learning-disability and autism supported housing

A clear need. The 2026 strategy records 112 people waiting for suitable accommodation.

Mental-health and neurodivergence housing

A strategic development area under the new supported-housing framework.

Reablement and intermediate care

A major improvement priority after weak CQC outcomes.

Respite

A credible area of need, particularly for unpaid carers.

Questions to answer before starting a care service in B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole

A prospective provider should be able to answer:

Considering starting a care service in B'mouth, Christchurch & Poole?

The strongest market cases are those that increase specialist capability, provide the right housing or help people remain independent rather than simply adding generic capacity.

The older Market Position Statement is useful for strategic context, but current conclusions have been tested against the much newer 2026 CQC and housing evidence.