Adult social care in Hampshire

Hampshire is one of the largest adult social care markets in England.

The county had an estimated population of 1,451,703 in 2025, excluding the unitary cities of Portsmouth and Southampton.

That population is both growing and ageing.

Hampshire's 2026 JSNA says the county has a larger proportion of older residents than England overall. People aged 70 and over account for 16.9% of the population, compared with 13.7% nationally, while the county has proportionally fewer younger working-age adults.

• 16.9%Hampshire
• 13.7%England

Between 2024 and 2031, Hampshire forecasts total population growth of 6.6%, equivalent to around 94,300 additional residents.

The strongest demographic pressure is among older age groups.

In Basingstoke and Deane, Rushmoor and Test Valley, the population aged over 80 is forecast to increase by around 40% or more between 2024 and 2031.

• 40%+At least

That creates substantial long-term demand for care.

But Hampshire's current market evidence does not support a simple conclusion that every service category needs more providers.

The county's June 2025 Market Position Statements describe a much more selective picture.

The homecare market has become crowded, with providers reporting difficulty securing enough work to remain sustainable.

Residential and nursing placements are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, although longer-term demand and complexity will rise.

Learning-disability residential care has significant excess capacity, while supported accommodation is the council's preferred strategic direction.

At the same time, Extra Care, dementia, complex homecare, specialist supported accommodation and provision able to support people with multiple or changing needs have much stronger development signals.

For a prospective provider, Hampshire is therefore not one market.

It is a collection of different local and service-specific markets where current supply can range from excess capacity to genuine shortage.

Hampshire at a glance

These figures come from different datasets and reference periods. They should not be treated as a single live operational snapshot. Together, however, they show the scale and structure of Hampshire's market.

1,451,703

Residents in the 2025 ONS mid-year estimate, excluding Portsmouth and Southampton

6.6%

Population forecast to grow by between 2024 and 2031

16.9%

Of residents aged 70 and over, compared with 13.7% nationally

44,000

Adult social care posts in 2024/25

3,100

Vacant adult social care posts

7.4%

Estimated workforce vacancy rate

31.9%

Estimated staff turnover rate

838

CQC-regulated adult social care services in 2024/25

472 / 366

Residential and non-residential regulated services

20,400+

Residents receiving long-term adult social care support

4.1

Million hours of homecare provided annually

3,500

Older people currently using council-commissioned care at home in the June 2025 MPS

14,800

Registered residential and nursing beds across the wider Hampshire market in March 2025

1,600

To 1,900 new residential and nursing placements purchased by the council each year

974

Extra Care apartments across 21 schemes in the latest council reporting

1,100

People with learning disabilities supported through supported living at 305 locations

613

Council-funded learning-disability residential and nursing placements

662

People receiving funded mental-health support or a Direct Payment

Hampshire's scale changes the nature of market analysis

Hampshire covers a very large and diverse geography.

The county combines substantial urban areas, commuter and market towns, coastal communities and rural villages. Affluent districts sit alongside neighbourhoods facing significant deprivation. Because population density and service access vary so widely, an opportunity evident in one part of Hampshire may not exist elsewhere.

Population density varies dramatically.

Gosport has more than 3,000 residents per square kilometre.

Winchester has fewer than 200.

1. Gosport

   3,000+

2. Winchester

   Under 200

That means a service can be oversupplied in one part of Hampshire and difficult to source in another.

County-wide provider counts therefore need to be interpreted carefully.

Population growth is significant

Hampshire expects its population to increase by around 94,300 people between 2024 and 2031.

94,300

Additional residents

and

6.6%

Forecast growth

That is a 6.6% increase in seven years.

Growth will not be evenly distributed.

Winchester is forecast to grow particularly quickly, while Gosport has a much smaller projected percentage increase.

Growing communities will generate additional need for homecare, primary and community healthcare, supported accommodation, care homes, Extra Care, respite and prevention. That potential demand still has to be assessed by service type and locality, rather than extrapolated from population growth alone.

But population growth alone does not tell a provider which service will be commercially viable.

The county is ageing faster than the headline population suggests

Hampshire already has an older age structure than England.

The fastest growth is expected among people aged 80 and over.

This matters because the need for formal support rises sharply at older ages.

As the oldest age groups expand, more residents may live with dementia, frailty, falls, reduced mobility, sensory impairment and multiple long-term conditions. Nursing needs may rise accordingly. The level and complexity of support required will therefore matter at least as much as headline population change.

The future market will therefore be shaped as much by acuity as by population size.

Hampshire's strategy is to keep people independent

The county's Adults' Health and Care Strategy, Prevention First Strategy and current MPSs all point in the same direction.

Hampshire's approach centres on strengths-based support, reablement, technology and community provision, complemented by Extra Care, supported accommodation and direct payments. The intention is to help people retain independence rather than increase use of long-term institutional care by default.

In January 2026, the council said more than 40,000 residents were benefiting from support designed to help them remain safely at home.

This means providers should not assume that demographic ageing will translate directly into conventional residential care.

Care at home is a very large market

Hampshire provides more than four million hours of homecare annually.

The June 2025 Independent Living at Home Market Position Statement described approximately 3,500 older people receiving care at home and some 40,000 commissioned hours each week. The volume demonstrates an established purchasing market, though it does not prove a shortage of suppliers.

3,500

Older care-at-home users

and

40,000

Commissioned hours per week

Over the next five years, the council expects the number of older people using care at home to increase to around 4,000 to 5,000.

That is a substantial market.

But size and opportunity are not the same thing.

The homecare market is currently crowded

Provider engagement undertaken by Hampshire County Council produced a clear message.

Providers said the market had become overcrowded.

Providers reported difficulty winning enough local-authority, NHS and privately funded packages to keep operations sustainable. More providers competing for the same work can depress rates and reduce route efficiency even in a county with substantial overall demand.

Providers also said increasing competition had pushed prices downward while employment and operating costs were rising.

This is important negative evidence.

A new homecare agency should not interpret four million annual care hours as proof that Hampshire needs another generic provider.

Homecare capacity varies geographically

Hampshire's homecare market is organised across 15 geographic zones.

The county says some geographically remote communities remain harder to serve.

That creates a more nuanced opportunity.

A more persuasive service proposition might solve a verified gap in rural coverage, local package density, complex or specialist care, hospital discharge, overnight visits or live-in support. These needs must be distinguished from general homecare capacity, which may already be sufficient in the same commissioning zone.

The county-wide market may be crowded while specific zones remain more difficult.

The new CCSH model changes market access

Community Care and Support Hampshire (CCSH), introduced for new council-funded domiciliary-care purchasing from April 2025, covers eligible older adults and people with physical disabilities, learning disabilities or mental-health needs.

The formal procurement emphasised quality, provider sustainability and coverage across geographic zones. A newly registered business must check whether and how it can join current purchasing arrangements, rather than assume CQC approval produces referrals.

This matters for new entrants.

CQC registration does not automatically create access to council-funded packages.

The procurement route needs to be understood before launch.

Complex homecare has a stronger future signal

Hampshire expects people to remain at home with increasingly complex needs.

The council wants provision that can work with reablement, care technology, NHS care pathways, continuing healthcare and hospital discharge. Delivering more complex packages also requires workforce competencies and coordination that are materially different from routine personal care.

It also wants more efficient models that can reduce unnecessary double-up care.

This creates a stronger opportunity for providers with genuine specialist capability than for undifferentiated standard homecare.

Reablement is intended to reduce long-term dependency

Hampshire operates a specialist reablement service for periods of up to six weeks.

The council wants more people to receive reablement before longer-term homecare is arranged.

It also expects homecare providers to continue the enabling ethos after the formal reablement period ends.

This changes the commercial model.

A successful provider may be expected to help reduce package intensity rather than preserve the same number of hours indefinitely.

Care technology is becoming part of mainstream support

Hampshire has made extensive use of technology-enabled care.

Around 40,000 people have benefited from care technology over the life of its current partnership.

The county has also built a large network of family, friend and neighbour responders.

Providers may be expected to show how technology improves independence, manages risks, avoids unnecessary visits and makes better use of scarce staff time. Those outcomes are more persuasive than offering devices without a coherent support model.

Extra Care has one of Hampshire's clearest development signals

Extra Care is a major part of Hampshire's strategy to reduce unnecessary residential-care use.

The council currently reports 974 apartments across 21 schemes.

Its ambition is to reach around 1,500 units overall.

974

Apartments now

and

1,500

Overall ambition

The 2024 demand assessment estimated that around 64% more affordable Extra Care homes would be needed by 2043. Fareham, Havant, East Hampshire and Basingstoke and Deane were among the priority localities. Developers and care partners should evaluate those specific geographic signals rather than treat the whole county equally.

1. Fareham
2. Havant
3. East Hampshire
4. Basingstoke and Deane

That is a much clearer opportunity signal than generic housing for older people.

Extra Care residents are becoming more complex

Hampshire says people are staying in Extra Care schemes for longer.

Their care needs are increasing.

Longer stays in Extra Care mean schemes may increasingly support residents with frailty, cognitive or sensory impairments, dementia, autism and other complex needs. The building, staffing arrangements and clinical relationships must be able to respond as individuals' requirements change.

This makes Extra Care more than a housing product.

The care model needs to be capable of supporting higher acuity.

Hampshire wants Extra Care to become part of neighbourhood infrastructure

The council is exploring how schemes might operate as community hubs, service bases and locations for rehabilitation or step-up and step-down support. This broadens the possible role of housing and care partners but also requires viable arrangements with commissioners and health services.

This creates a wider role for providers and landlords.

A future scheme may need to operate as part of a broader local care ecosystem rather than simply provide 24/7 care to residents.

Residential and nursing care is a large but relatively stable market

Of just over 14,800 registered residential and nursing beds across the wider market in March 2025, approximately 45% were residential and 55% nursing. Those categories serve different needs and should not be treated as interchangeable spare capacity.

1. Residential

   45%

2. Nursing

   55%

The county council itself operated around 900 beds.

Hampshire currently purchases approximately 1,600 to 1,900 new placements each year from the external market.

That is substantial purchasing volume.

But the current MPS does not forecast a near-term increase in placement numbers.

Mainstream care-home growth is therefore not automatic

The council says residential and nursing placement volumes are expected to remain broadly stable over the next few years.

Longer-term demographic trends point upward.

That means a provider should be cautious about a business case based solely on population ageing.

Current utilisation, local competition and payer mix still matter.

Dementia is the clearest care-home growth pressure

Hampshire estimates that dementia among older people could increase by around 45% by 2040.

• 45%Increase

The county wants more care homes and community services capable of supporting people living with dementia.

This creates a stronger signal than generic bed expansion.

Meeting more complex dementia needs may require adapted environments, specialist staff training, greater supervision, behavioural expertise and clinical partnerships. Simply designating standard beds as dementia provision would not address the underlying capability requirement.

Care-home occupancy remains uneven

Hampshire's residential and nursing MPS notes that occupancy has improved but remains a challenge for some providers.

The self-funder market has not fully returned to pre-2020 levels.

This matters commercially.

A large population and substantial council purchasing can coexist with underused capacity in some homes.

A new development needs a locality-specific case.

Learning-disability residential care is oversupplied

Hampshire's younger-adults MPS is explicit about this.

The county council funds 613 learning-disability residential and nursing placements.

The wider market contains around 1,230 learning-disability residential and nursing beds, including Portsmouth and Southampton.

1,230

Beds in the wider market

and

37%

Commissioned by Hampshire

Hampshire therefore commissions only around 37% of total capacity.

The council says this indicates significant and ongoing oversupply.

That is clear negative evidence for generic new learning-disability residential development.

Specialist learning-disability gaps still exist

Oversupply does not mean every need is met.

Hampshire says emergency and crisis accommodation for people with complex needs can still be difficult to source.

The council is particularly interested in support for adults with learning disabilities whose needs change as they age, including people developing dementia, frailty or additional physical-health conditions. These combinations require care models that join learning-disability expertise with appropriate older-person support.

A specialist model may therefore have a stronger case than general residential care.

Supported accommodation is the preferred learning-disability model

Hampshire commissions supported living for around 1,100 people with learning disabilities across 305 locations.

The county wants to increase supported-accommodation capacity further.

Hampshire wants more people supported in settings that promote independence, offer a front door of their own where appropriate, enable shared staffing when suitable and maintain connections to the wider community. That strategic preference makes property suitability and the support model central to market entry.

This is one of Hampshire's clearest strategic directions.

Hampshire wants people supported locally

The council operates a "Hampshire first" approach.

It wants to work with people living in out-of-county placements who wish to move back.

This creates potential opportunity for providers that can meet specialist needs locally.

But out-of-county placement should never be treated as a simple vacancy calculation.

The actual cohort and reasons for placement need to be understood.

Physical-disability provision has specific gaps

The council funds 126 residential and 92 nursing placements for people with physical disabilities. It also identifies concerns about younger adults whose needs may be met in older-person services not specifically designed for them.

126

Residential placements

and

92

Nursing placements

The county says there are relatively few specialist physical-disability homes.

It is particularly interested in provision for younger adults who may currently be placed in older-person services.

Potential responses include more appropriate specialist short-term residential support and supported accommodation for people with physical disabilities. Any development needs to establish which of those options commissioners actually require.

Mental-health demand is increasingly about complexity rather than volume

Hampshire's projections suggest the total number of working-age adults with common mental-health conditions may remain broadly stable or fall slightly.

But the council says individual need is becoming more complex.

A relatively stable or declining overall caseload can still conceal people with co-occurring health problems, difficult social circumstances, physical support requirements or age-related needs. The commercial opportunity depends on the complexity of appropriate accommodation and support rather than total headcount.

That changes the type of provision required.

Mental-health supported accommodation has a substantial existing market

Hampshire already purchases 153 short-term mental-health supported-accommodation beds across 30 locations and approximately 215 long-term packages. That existing infrastructure matters when identifying what additional capacity, specialist capability or pathway improvement would be useful.

The council wants to continue reducing reliance on residential care where supported accommodation is appropriate.

This gives supported housing a stronger strategic signal than generic mental-health residential expansion.

Mental-health homecare is being formalised

Hampshire commissions homecare for around 182 people with mental-health needs.

Around 45% of that provision was still being spot purchased in the 2025 MPS.

The council's direction is to move this activity onto formal homecare frameworks and reduce spot purchasing toward zero.

Providers interested in this market therefore need procurement access, not simply CQC registration.

Workforce is Hampshire's largest cross-market constraint

Skills for Care estimated approximately 44,000 adult social care posts in 2024/25, of which around 41,000 were filled and 3,100 vacant. The estimated vacancy rate was 7.4%, indicating continuing competition for staff.

41,000

Filled

and

3,100

Vacant

The estimated vacancy rate was 7.4%.

Turnover was much more concerning.

Annual turnover, estimated at 31.9%, was above the South East average and markedly above the England figure. A high rate of staff replacement can undermine service continuity even where providers manage to keep posts filled.

• 7.4%Vacancy
• 31.9%Turnover

This is a significant operational risk.

High turnover affects the strongest opportunity areas most

Dementia, supported living, autism, mental-health provision, complex physical-disability support and nursing all depend heavily on experienced and consistent teams. Losing those workers can be particularly disruptive to care quality, relationships and risk management.

The market may need specialist capacity while the workforce environment makes that capacity hard to sustain.

International recruitment is becoming less certain

Hampshire's market documents repeatedly reference dependence on overseas recruitment and changing national rules.

The county has also published an Independent Sector Workforce Strategy for 2026–30.

A resilient workforce approach should prioritise retention, local recruitment, career progression, ethical employment, training and productivity. Overseas recruitment may remain useful, but ought not to be the only route to staffing the proposed service.

International recruitment may remain part of the strategy, but it should not be the entire strategy.

What does the Hampshire market actually show?

Hampshire is a very large care market.

But scale should not be confused with universal opportunity.

Standard homecare

Large demand, but a crowded and financially pressured provider market.

Complex and specialist homecare

A stronger growth signal, particularly around discharge, complex need and working-age adults.

Extra Care

One of the clearest development opportunities. Hampshire wants around 1,500 units and identifies several priority districts.

General residential and nursing

A large stable market, but no near-term forecast for major placement growth.

Dementia and complex care

A stronger long-term signal than generic bed growth.

Learning-disability residential care

Clear oversupply at market level.

Learning-disability supported accommodation

Strong strategic direction and continued development need.

Physical-disability supported accommodation

A smaller but specific development area.

Mental-health supported accommodation

A substantial and strategically important market.

Workforce

A major constraint, particularly because turnover is unusually high.

If you are using this market evidence to decide whether a particular service is worth pursuing, the Should I Start? Market Report can apply the same local dataset to your planned service in Hampshire, including your service type, stage and intended customer group.

Questions to answer before starting a care service in Hampshire

A prospective provider should be able to answer:

1. Which exact client group will the service support?
2. Which district or homecare zone is relevant?
3. Is current supply already crowded?
4. Is the opportunity driven by complexity, housing or total capacity?
5. Who will pay?
6. Which commissioning framework applies?
7. Is that procurement route open?
8. What comparable local provision already exists?
9. Is specialist housing required?
10. What fee is realistically achievable?
11. Can the workforce be recruited and retained?
12. Does the service support Hampshire's independence-first direction?
13. Can the service reduce inappropriate residential or out-of-county care?
14. What evidence would cause the provider not to proceed?

If the local market case looks strong enough to proceed and you are moving towards CQC registration, you can get a proposal comparing specially selected and verified CQC registration specialists for the service you plan to register.